I wanted to make visuals for how the top teams have performed this season, using SP+ and point differential. Each opponent for each team is shown with the expected point differential a top 5 team would have against that team, the expected differential from a 21-25 team, and then the actual result.
Top 3:
This backs up Ohio State being ranked #1 by the Committee. The Buckeyes have been in the Expected Top 5 region every week, and very often blowing that expectation out of the water
LSU has the best win in the nation, beating an Alabama team that a team ranked 20-25 would expect to lose to by 20! However, the Tigers have been (relatively) down against some teams like Texas, Vanderbilt, and Miss State when compared to the other Top 3.
Clemson has proved that their nail-biter vs UNC was a blip and not a trend, being in the Expected Top 5 region every other week except against Wofford
Next Team IN:
Based on this visual, I would order the “Next Team IN” group as follows: Alabama, UGA, Utah, OU, Minnesota, Baylor
Games underperforming Top 5 expectations: Alabama 4 games, Uga 6 games, Utah 8 games, OU 9 games, Minnesota 10 games, Baylor 10 games
Games underperforming Top 25 expectations: Alabama 0 games, Uga 2 games, Utah 4 games, OU 4 games, Minnesota 6 games, Baylor 6 games
Alabama has the highest floor and the highest ceiling, and as shown above has demonstrated that they are the “best” team outside the top 3. However, they don’t have the luxury of making an extra data point in their conference championship. Due to divisional standings, they are the only P5 team currently with one loss that is unable to play in and win their conference’s championship
UGA is almost assuredly “Win and IN” at this point, but their offensive philosophy of trying to sit on games has hurt them throughout the season. According to SP+, UGA is a 2.2pt underdog at a neutral site vs LSU, winning around 46% of the time.
I think that Utah currently has the slight edge over OU in the battle of “Potential Conference Champs Currently on the Outside”, playing better against their schedule than OU has throughout the year. However OU likely faces the stronger opponent in their championship game and can win that edge right back.
Baylor and Minnesota have had awesome, preseason expectation-shattering seasons. Their potential to play in the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl was considered incredibly unlikely at the beginning of the season, but they are now so close to achieving that. That being said, if you merely look at their record and then pick out one or two opponents that they beat, and say that they are playoff worthy — then you’re not seeing the whole picture. Some r/cfb users have complained about Minnesota’s position behind Alabama, UGA, OU, and even Utah because they emphasize the one result against Penn State so much. Utah has played their schedule much better than Minnesota has played their’s, and that goes for every other team currently ranked ahead of the Gophers. Not making the playoffs does not mean the Bear’s or Gopher’s seasons were failures. Hosting Gameday, playing to win your division, and the level of fan enthusiasm around both programs are all worthy achieved goals
Other Notes:
I know the first thing some may think is "Well [favorite team]'s differential vs [opponent] would have been higher if we didn't put the backups in on the last drive!" and I totally understand that. However, that factor affects every team, and it will be mostly evened out over the course of the season. Additionally, getting into how to compare subbing out everyone on the starting 11, to just subbing the quarterback, or taking out the full time starters but keeping in the rotation players who normally play half the time is incredibly fraught. Lastly, as fair or unfair as it is, currently the committee gets into the nitty gritty of comparing how big wins are and how close loses are, in determining their rankings
Games that go into overtime are listed as having a point differential of zero.
I rated FCS opponents the same as UMASS (130th, -33.6). I thought it was better to leave those games in, and mark the team as being in the FCS, and individuals can judge how how strong to judge those opponents.