I wanted to make visuals for how the top teams have performed this season, using SP+ and point differential. Each opponent for each team is shown with the expected point differential a top 5 team would have against that team, expected differential from a 21-25 team, and then the actual result.
Main Points:
LSU and Ohio State have cleared the other Primary Contenders, LSU with their edge in toughest opponents and OhSt with blowing expectations out of the water in every game but the opener.
Alabama and Clemson grade similarly overall, reaching or nearing Top 5 expectations in every game but one. The big difference is Clemson’s nail-biter vs UNC obviously being worse than Bama’s performance against Tennessee after losing Tua to injury.
Alright it’s time… Baylor and Minnesota are in the Primary list. Baylor is now the only undefeated team in the Big12, having an absolutely clear shot at being an undefeated P5 champ, and is able to withstand a loss and still make the conference championship. Minnesota is among a few other undefeated B1G teams, but has graded very favorably against expectations the past few weeks. (Also I wanted more room in the other two categories 😅)
Each week Utah is looking more and more solid than Oregon, but is viewed in the AP as having the worse loss. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Committee ranks Utah ahead of Oregon if both win this week.
I am interested to see how Notre Dame’s season ends. I was considering leaving them off of the “Keep an Eye On..” list despite their #16 ranking, as they are now behind quite a few teams for an at large NY6 bid, and they don’t have a marquee matchup or chance at a conference championship game for the rest of the season to get back in the national conversation.
Other Notes:
I know the first thing some may think is "Well [favorite team]'s differential vs [opponent] would have been higher if we didn't put the backups in on the last drive!" and I totally understand that. However, that factor affects every team, and it will be mostly evened out over the course of the season. Additionally, getting into how to compare subbing out everyone on the starting 11, to just subbing the quarterback, or taking out the full time starters but keeping in the rotation players who normally play half the time is incredibly fraught. Lastly, as fair or unfair as it is, currently the committee gets into the nitty gritty of comparing how big wins are and how close loses are, in determining their rankings
Be aware that the vertical axis is different for each category
Games that go into overtime are listed as having a point differential of zero.
I rated FCS opponents the same as UMASS (130th, -31.7). I thought it was better to leave those games in, and mark the team as being in the FCS, and individuals can judge how how strong to judge those opponents.