I wanted to make visuals for how the top teams have performed this season, using SP+ and point differential. Each opponent for each team is shown with the expected point differential a top 5 team would have against that team, expected differential from a 21-25 team, and then the actual result. (initial idea from /u/tmart12)
Main Points:
It is easy to see why Ohio State is #1 is SP+. After their first game, they have blown Top 5 expectation out of the water!
Outside of the UNC game, Clemson hasn't underperformed an average 21-25 team in any game. There is a lot of public feeling that they are not impressing as much as the other contenders throughout the entire season, which is not the case
Utah has kept winning, and with their USC loss not grading as bad have elevated into the Secondary Contender list.
Baylor and Minnesota keep winning and also find themselves in the Secondary list. Both charts show all the reason for feelings of trepidation about them, but especially Minnesota has turned that around with grading favorably against expectations when playing Illinois, Nebraska, and Rutgers
Boise State does not grade favorably, not outperforming an average 21-25 team against any opponent
Other Notes:
I know the first thing some may think is "Well [favorite team]'s differential vs [opponent] would have been higher if we didn't put the backups in on the last drive!" and I totally understand that. However, that factor affects every team, and it will be mostly evened out over the course of the season. Additionally, getting into how to compare subbing out everyone on the starting 11, to just subbing the quarterback, or taking out the full time starters but keeping in the rotation players who normally play half the time is incredibly fraught. Lastly, as fair or unfair as it is, currently the committee gets into the nitty gritty of comparing how big wins are and how close loses are, in determining their rankings
The vertical axis is bound to 72, as Penn State's 72 point win is the largest point differential of the featured teams
Games that go into overtime are listed as having a point differential of zero.
I rated FCS opponents the same as UMASS (130th, -30.7). I thought it was better to leave those games in, and mark the team as being in the FCS, and individuals can judge how how strong to judge those opponents.